Stats, data and measures to support your ultras. Is this pseudo-science? Absolutely. But it’s also years’ worth of observations that have proved useful as training guidance and to get a sense of whether I’m ready for the target ultra.

It can be covered in a few easy(ish) steps, and if you’re so inclined, you can analyse your own data to see if you’re on track.

01. Units of effort

This has its origins in working out how long it would take me to cover ground in mountain marathons- particularly score class, where you have a fixed time to visit as many checkpoints as possible. I worked out that for me, over hilly terrain, I could cover 1km in about the same length of time I could ascend 100m. That has proved very useful in working out whether it’s better to try climbing up and down or running along the flat. But then it has a second use: gauging the overall difficulty of a run. For example, the Bob Graham Round, with its 106km and 8,100m ascent, has 197 units. An average day on the Dragon’s Back Race (64km, 3,000m ascent) has 94 units. This is a useful way of thinking about your longer runs, as it factors in the height gain, which is a crucial part of mountain challenges.

02. Units per hour

I was surprised to find that the units per hour worked quite well as a measure of effort, regardless of the profile of the run. For example, for me, on a short run, whether it’s a fast effort on my local parkrun or a 10km-ish run in the hills, the most I can do is 16 units per hour. At a more comfortable pace, I do 14-15 over shorter (up to 10 mile) distances. You can easily plug in some of your own run details and times, and note that obviously there will be a difference if you were giving it some welly, or taking it steady. The taking it steady measure is going to be a better indicator of how things will map onto an ultra.

Now have a look at what you need to do to achieve your target. The Bob Graham has a 24 hour time limit; 197/24 gives you a target of 8.21 units per hour. (Remember that you might have some stoppage time on a BG attempt, but then for comparison purposes, you will probably also stop on a very long training run.)

03. Lapse rate

Now it starts getting interesting. We will all have a different lapse rate. For steady-Eddie endurance runners like me who have an unremarkable top speed but can keep plodding it out the lapse rate is fairly slow. For sprinters it is presumably remarkably fast (I don’t know any sprinters). But what is it for you, and will you make it on the challenge or event you’ve signed up to?

Here’s a sample of some recent outcomes for me:

Short runs (as described above): 12km, 400m, 16uph

Longer training run (e.g. 26km, 2,000m, 46 units, 4 hours) = 11.5uph

Bullock Smithy (90km, 2,200m, 112 units, 10 hours 40) = 10.5uph

Fleetwood Lakes 40 (107km, 7,500m, 182 units, 22 hours) = 8.3uph

Ultra Tour de Snowdonia (165km, 10,500m, 270 units, 37 hours) = 7.3uph

There’s a nice graph that could be drawn of this.

04. Anomalies

I started off with a warning this wasn’t entirely scientific, and the biggest thing to remember is there may be reasons why the results seem all over the place. There’s a difference between a race, or a fast training effort, and the more regular miles you need to build base fitness. Conditions on the day, terrain, steepness, whether you were rested or tired, how much you were carrying, all of these will make a difference. If you did feel motivated to keep track of your runs, you’d find a trend and that would be helpful, but don’t get too hung up on individual results. For example, my Tranter’s Round (65km, 6,200m, 127 units, 16 hours) comes out as 7.9uph – out of line with the other results above and not encouraging prep for a full 24 hour challenge like the Ramsay Round. But, it was a hot day, solo, 4 weeks after the Ultra Tour de Snowdonia, so not a worry.

Overall, the value of this approach is in giving an indicator of whether you’re approximately on track. Make sure your results for comparison are on similar ground to what you’re training for, and it will give you a decent insight into whether you’re ready. Finding the runs where you’re below the standard you need to be will give you clues as to what to train (or opportunity to make excuses, as I have above). And, it can give you confidence about the pace you need to move, and whether you have it in you.